Japan's Onshore and Offshore Wind Energy Potential as well as Long-term Installation Goal and Its Roadmap by the Year 2050

摘要

Net usable onshore wind energy in Japan is known as 6,400 MW, estimated in March 2000. However, there is the need to revise this including offshore based on the latest analytical method, recent development of wind turbine technology, and the latest national land map. This study re-estimated the Japan's onshore and offshore gross wind energy resources as well as the net available wind energy in consideration of social and economic constraints. Based on the estimation, the study then assessed a long-term installation goal and an installation roadmap. Consequently, the potential estimation found 6,434,830 MW for the wind energy resources and 782,220 MW for the available wind energy in onshore and offshore of Japan at annual mean wind speed of 6.5 m/s for onshore and 7.5 m/s for offshore at 80 m height. Furthermore, the roadmap and annual installation capacity was estimated to achieve the long-term installation goal, "the amount of electricity produced by wind turbines exceeds 10% of the Japan's national electricity demand by the year 2050". As a result, the cumulative targets of wind turbines installation were found as following: 3,000 MW in 2010; 11,310 MW in 2020; 27,000 MW in 2030; 44,300 MW in 2040; and 50,000 MW in 2050. The annual production capacity including replacement of turbines after the year 2030 continues to exceed 2,500 MW every year, therefore the sustainable development of the wind power generation industry is expected.