This track was held Monday afternoon, May 24, 2010. The original paper (3468) demonstrated that uncertainty and risk can be quantified by coupling a Monte Carlo simulation using data collected over an 18 month period on an existing ship acquisition program. The purpose of this paper is to broaden the range of mass properties data used in the same simulation model to a five year design acquisition life cycle in order to gain increased insight into the use of this method. New observations will be drawn as to the required number of simulation runs, the various measures of risk, effects on risk of physical platform changes to satisfy performance requirement changes, as well as disclosing improved graphic methods for displaying some risk data.
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