Sustainable transboundary groundwater management under shifting political scenarios: the Ceylanpinar Aquifer and Turkey-Syria relations

摘要

Recent scholarship evaluates how peace and conflict affect resource sustainability. The authors of this article address how enhanced Turkey-Syria cooperation could impact management of the Ceylanpinar Aquifer, which flows beneath both countries and accounts for over10% of Turkey's transboundary groundwater discharge. Although the Euphrates-Tigris river system apportionment has been critical for bilateral relations, allocation of the Ceylanpinar Aquifer has been neglected. The authors develop a simplified conceptual model to simulate water flow in the aquifer. Taking this model as a reference point, this article explores how political changes may impact aquifer sustainability, and proposes data-integrated modelling for sustainable management.