Modeling discrete choice behavior using concepts from fuzzy set theory, approximate reasoning and neural networks

摘要

Models of discrete choice analysis are usually based on the random utility framework. They assume that decision makers make decisions that maximize their utility. Alternative formulations of the problem have also been proposed in the literature. These approaches model the decision makers' perceptions of the attributes of the various alternatives using fuzzy sets and linguistic variables, and the decision process itself, using concepts from approximate reasoning and fuzzy control. The underlying assumption is that decision makers use a few simple rules that relate their vague perceptions of the various attributes to their preferences towards the available alternatives. The paper extends this approach by incorporating rule weights, which capture the importance of a particular rule in the decision process. It also presents an approach for calibrating the weights using concepts from neural networks. A case study, involving mode choice, is used to demonstrate the potential of the approach and compare it to alternative formulations and methodologies.