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BEHAVIORAL AND PRESCRIPTIVE EXPLANATIONS OF A REVERSE SUNK COST EFFECT

机译:反向沉没成本效应的行为和规范解释

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The all too common sunk cost effect is apparent when an investor influenced by what has been spent already persists in a venture, committing further resources or foregoing more profitable opportunities, when the economically rational action is to quit. Less common but arguably just as much a sunk cost effect is the mistake of giving up on a failed or failing venture too readily, sometimes out of nothing but pique at what has been lost, or perhaps through the more subtle psychological forces posited by Kahneman, Tversky, Thaler and others within prospect theory and related work on "mental budgeting". Two case examples are considered, wherein decision makers dissatisfied with the results of their investments, and having lost money, appear to compound their losses by selling out at prices less than their own estimates of the remaining financial worth of the failed assets. These decisions are evaluated from the perspectives of both behavioral and prescriptive economics, and are found to have possible explanations in both. Their prescriptive rationale assumes a portfolio theory of investment decisions, and is demonstrated within both expected utility (economics) and mean-variance (finance) frameworks.
机译:当受经济影响的投资者退出时,受到已花费资金影响的投资者已经坚持从事某项风险投资,投入更多资源或创造了更多可获利的机会,那么这种普遍的沉没成本效应就显而易见了。不太常见但可以说是沉没成本效应的错误是过早放弃失败或失败的冒险的错误,有时是出于对失去的东西的愤慨,或者也许是由于卡尼曼所施加的更微妙的心理力量,特维尔斯基,泰勒(Tversky)和塔勒(Thaler)等人在前景理论和“心理预算”的相关工作中。考虑了两个案例,决策者对投资结果不满意,并且亏损了,他们似乎以比自己对失败资产剩余财务价值的估计价格低的价格卖出,使损失增加了。这些决策是从行为经济学和规范经济学的角度进行评估的,并且发现在两者中都有可能的解释。他们的说明性理由假设了投资决策的投资组合理论,并在预期效用(经济学)和均值方差(财务)框架中得到了证明。

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