Industrial straw utilization in China: Simulation and analysis of the dynamics of technology application and competition

摘要

Many regions of China have abundant straw resources for industrial utilization. Although there has been an emerging trend of using straw resources for bioenergy in China, there is little study of the dynamics of straw utilization in industry. This study develops an agent-based model to simulate the dynamics of industrial utilization of redundant straw in a virtual area of 10,000 square kilometers. The dynamics of three typical industrial straw utilization technologies applied in enterprise are simulated: bioethanol, power generation, and paper making. Four scenarios are established to compare changes in the total scale and proportion of enterprise caused by collection technologies and subsidy to bioethanol. The results show that the final industrial consumption of straw is approximately 60% in the basic scenario, whereas the highest proportion is almost 90% in the other scenarios. The largest share of straw is consumed by power generation in scenarios with low bioethanol subsidies and is close to bioethanol in scenarios with high bioethanol subsidies. The industrial structure varies due to changes in collection technologies and bioethanol subsidies in the scenario analysis. The industrialization of bioethanol is also determined by technological maturity time. Some policy implications to improve industrial straw utilization are discussed based on the results.