Crude days ahead? OIL and the resource curse in Sudan

摘要

Oil remains a major threat to peace and stability in Sudan as the interimnperiod of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement draws to a close. With an2011 referendum for Southern secession on the near horizon, political relationsnbetween the government of Sudan and the semi-autonomousngovernment of Southern Sudan rest precariously on a fragile economynand waning oil sector. This analysis of the political economy of oil in Sudannsince 2005 finds that governance at national, regional, and local levelsnhas largely failed to manage the damaging political and economic effects ofnthe resource curse. Uncertainty surrounding Khartoum’s oil transfers tonthe South, negligence and corruption among the Southern elite, and thenlack of a peace dividend to offset environmental degradation in oil-bearingnregions trace the multiplicity of the resource curse in Sudan. While compromisesnon oil between political elites offer some hope of avoiding anfuture North–South civil war, the regional and local dimensions of the resourcencurse remain critical sources of armed conflict.