Managing the Risk of Terrorism to Interdependent Infrastructure Systems Through the Dynamic Inoperability Input-Output Model

摘要

This paper discusses the Dynamic Input-Output Inoperability Model (DIIM), which is an extension to the static Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM). Based on Wassily Leontief's Input-Output (I-O) model, both the IIM and the DIIM analyze how the system of interdependent sectors can be adversely affected as a result of initial perturbations to other sectors through willful attacks or natural disasters. To model the industry/sector interdependencies, the DIIM uses the national and regional commodity-transaction data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Regional Input-Output Multiplier System (RIMS II) In contrast to most traditional dynamic I-O models, the DIIM introduces industry resilience coefficients to measure the efficacy of sectors' risk management options. The DIIM also incorporates the stochastic properties of a recovery through the Brownian motion, representing short-term uncertainties. The paper uses two metrics to assess the consequences to the economic sectors of attacks. The DIIM methodology is demonstrated in detail through a two-by-two economy system. This is followed by an analysis of a terrorist attack scenario, using the DIIM and the BEA/RIMSII commodity-flow data of the 59 sectors in Virginia.