Estimating health risks in metal contaminated land for sustainable agriculture in peri-urban industrial areas using Monte Carlo probabilistic approach

摘要

Health risks associated with heavy metal contamination were characterized in the agriculture soil procured from the pen-urban areas of Saharanpur, India. The mean concentration of As, Cd, Cu, Pb, Cr and Ni were observed to be 14.50, 1.65, 35.82, 30.76, 60.70 and 89.63 mg/kg respectively. Statistical analysis was performed for the source apportionment of the metal in the study area. Health risk to adult and children population was estimated using the expression derived by USEPA. Non-carcinogenic health risk via ingestion, inhalation and dermal pathways was estimated by hazard quotient (HQ) and hazard index (HI), whereas Carcinogenic risk was estimated via inhalation pathway. HI combined (ingestion, dermal and inhalation) for both adult and children population exceeded the safe level (HI = 1) for Cr (2.21). Cancer risk were observed within the admissible range (1E-06 to 1E-04). Monte Carlo simulation approach was applied for uncertainty analysis of estimated non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks by simulating the variables associated with risk estimation for 10,000 iterations. (C) 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.