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Instability and Oil: How Political Time Horizons Affect Oil Revenue Management

机译:不稳定与石油:政治时限如何影响石油收入管理

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While economic explanations for the “resource curse” are well established, the political factors explaining why governments fail to take corrective action remain poorly understood. Research demonstrates that if governments save oil profits abroad and slowly re-introduce the oil-generated revenue into the domestic economy once the rate of return on investment is greater at home than abroad and the quality of project implementation developed, many of the economic problems that plague oil-rich countries can be avoided. Political time horizons shape the incentives of governments to pursue this strategy. Unstable leaders rely on oil revenue to maintain positions of power. They also have less incentive to save oil windfalls abroad as they fear they will not be in office long enough to benefit from such decisions. This paper uses both quantitative data and case study analysis of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to demonstrate that leaders with longer time horizons save a greater proportion of oil windfalls abroad than their less stable counterparts, helping avoid the economic pitfalls of oil abundance.
机译:尽管对“资源诅咒”的经济解释已经很成熟,但是解释政府为什么不采取纠正措施的政治因素仍然知之甚少。研究表明,一旦政府在国内的投资回报率高于国外,并且发展了项目实施的质量,一旦政府在国外节省石油利润,并将石油产生的收入缓慢地重新引入国内经济,就会产生许多经济问题。瘟疫可避开石油丰富的国家。政治时间范围决定了政府推行该战略的动机。不稳定的领导人依靠石油收入来维持权力地位。他们还没有动力去节省国外的石油横财,因为他们担心自己任职的时间不足以受益于此类决定。本文使用定量数据和阿塞拜疆和哈萨克斯坦的案例研究分析表明,时间跨度较长的领导人比不稳定的领导人节省了更多的国外石油意外收益,从而避免了石油丰裕的经济陷阱。

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