Maintenance and decommissioning real options models for life-cycle cost-benefit analysis of offshore platforms

摘要

Maintenance and decommissioning real options (RO) models are developed for life-cycle cost-benefit (LCCB) analysis of offshore platforms. Uncertainties about hydrocarbon prices, maintenance costs, environmental loading, structural capacity and damage due to deterioration are taken into consideration in the RO modelling. Expressions are derived for expected costs and benefits in terms of the availability function of the platform, which depends on the hazard and restoring functions, and on the annual probability of failure of the structure. Results show that the use of the net present value (NPV) approach can significantly underestimate the LCCB. The RO formulation developed is shown to provide a proper framework to account for the value of the managerial flexibility to consider different options along the service lifetime of the structure, such as maintenance and decommissioning, and to make decisions adapting to future information.