Design and sensitivity analysis using the probability-safety-factor method. An application to retaining walls

摘要

This paper presents a new method for designing engineering works that makes the classical approach, based on safety factors, and the modern, probability-based, approach compatible, and includes a sensitivity analysis. The method consists of a sequence of classical designs, based on given safety factors, that (a) minimize cost or optimize an alternative objective function, (b) calculate the different failure mode probabilities or their upper bounds, and (c) update the safety factors to satisfy both the safety factors and the failure probability requirements. The process is repeated until convergence. As a result, an automatic design of the engineering work, the safety factors and the corresponding probabilities of failure for all failure modes are obtained. A double safety check is used and the correspondence between safety factors and probabilities of failure for the different modes are easily understood. An advantage of this approach is that the optimization procedure and the reliability calculations are decoupled. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is performed using a method that consists of transforming the data parameters into artificial variables and using the dual associated problem. The method is illustrated by its application to a retaining wall design.