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Cross-infection in epidemics spread by carriers

机译:携带者传播的流行病中的交叉感染

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A block-structured transient Markov process is introduced to describe an epidemic spreading within two linked populations, of carriers and susceptibles. The epidemic terminates as soon as there are no more carriers or susceptibles present in the population. Our purpose is to determine the distribution of the final susceptible and carrier states, and of any integral path for the susceptible process. The transient epidemic state is also briefly discussed. Then, the model is extended to allow the recovery of infected individuals. Finally, several particular models, some known, are used for illustration.
机译:引入了块结构瞬态马尔可夫过程来描述携带者和易感者两个链接种群中的流行病传播。一旦人口中不再有携带者或易感人群,该流行病即会终止。我们的目的是确定最终敏感和载流子状态的分布,以及敏感过程的任何完整路径。还简要讨论了短暂流行病状态。然后,对该模型进行扩展以允许恢复受感染的个体。最后,使用一些已知的特定模型进行说明。

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