Dynamic risk control for project development

摘要

A statistical methodology for dynamic risk control is discussed. The research is aimed at constructing tools for the analysis of expert opinions within a Company about the risks involved in the production of a new commercial product or service. Focus is on risk events and on the analysis of the expert assessments of probabilities, losses and correlations of such events. A rescoring loop of risk assessments and preventive actions taken by the Company on the basis of these assessments is illustrated through an example on Software development. Relevant literature on risk and subjective elicitations is reviewed.