The 2005 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors(ITRS,p.75) has generated a lot of press by designating the 450mm wafer size for production in 2012. Some of the issues being raised include the cost of developing the conversion tools - estimated at USD20B - and the ongoing business costs of improving the existing technology. According to a recent VLSI Research report, the total semiconductor equipment market was USD25B in 2004. If one applies the rule-of-thumb that 15% of sales revenues are applied for R&D, and that one-third of that is for new product development, then the total annual funds available for new developments (including 450mm) are ～USD1B. Since 2012 is six years from now, having the technology ready by then would require an investment in 450mm equipment development of USD2.3B/year, beyond the ～USD1B available.
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