Polarity Reversal Time of the Magnetic Dipole Component of the Sun in Solar Cycle 24

摘要

The Sun’s general magnetic field has shown polarity reversal three times during the last three solar cycles. We attempt to estimate the upcoming polarity reversal time of the solar magnetic dipole by using the coronal field model and synoptic data of the photospheric magnetic field. The scalar magnetic potential of the coronal magnetic field is expanded into a spherical harmonic series. The long-term variations of the dipole component ((g^{0}_{1})) calculated from the data of National Solar Observatory/Kitt Peak and Wilcox Solar Observatory are compared with each other. It is found that the two (g^{0}_{1}) values show a similar tendency and an approximately linear increase between the Carrington rotation periods CR 2070 and CR 2118. The next polarity reversal is estimated by linear extrapolation to be between CR 2132.2 (December 2012) and CR2134.8 (March 2013).