The Influence of Age at Menarche on the Fertility of Chinese Women

摘要

This paper examines the effect of age at menarche on children ever born (CEB). We use data from the 1997 Sample Survey of Population and Reproductive Health conducted by the China Population Information and Research Center and the State Family Planning Commission. Poisson regression models are estimated for 10,919 ever married Chinese Han women. The influence of a woman's age at menarche on her CEB is examined while controlling for the social effects of rural/urban residency, education, her number of fecund years, whether her first birth occurred before or after the initiation of China's one child policy, and her age at first marriage. The results support our hypothesized positive association between age at menarche and CEB. That is, the later a woman's age at menarche, the greater her number of children ever born. Holding the other five independent variables constant, we show that for every additional month in age at menarche, a Chinese Han woman's mean number of children ever born increases by 0.5 percent. Some of the implications of these results are explored.