A Unified Statistical Approach for Simulation, Modeling, Analysis and Mapping of Environmental Data

摘要

In this paper, hierarchical models are proposed as a general approach for spatio-temporal problems, including dynamical mapping, and the analysis of the outputs from complex environmental modeling chains. In this frame, it is easy to define various model components concerning both model outputs and empirical data and to cover with both spatial and temporal correlation. Moreover, special sensitivity analysis techniques are developed for understanding both model components and mapping capability. The motivating application is the dynamical mapping of airborne particulate matters for risk monitoring using data from both a monitoring network and a computer model chain, which includes an emission, a meteorological and a chemical-transport module. Model estimation is determined by the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm associated with simulation-based spatio-temporal parametric bootstrap. Applying sensitivity analysis techniques to the same hierarchical model provides interesting insights into the computer model chain.