Driving the Future: A Management Flight Simulator of the US Automobile Market

摘要

Background. A significant gap exists in the United States between ambitiousrnregulatory goals requiring firms to introduce hybrid and electric vehicles, andrnconsumer adoption of these technologies to date. However, the interventionsrnrequired to close this gap are not obvious due to the complex feedbacks andrntime delays that govern alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) diffusion.rnPurpose. The purpose of this article is to introduce Driving the Future (DtF), arnfree, web-based management flight simulator to explore the effects ofrnautomaker strategies and public policies on the US automotive market.rnMethod. We develop a behavioral, dynamic model portraying multiple automobilernand fuel types, fueling infrastructure, and consumer choices, enabling users tornrapidly experiment with how a wide array of decisions and assumptions shapernthe dynamics of AFV diffusion out to 2050.rnResults. We describe how the simulator can be used to explore various scenariosrnfor AFV adoption, and discuss how the simulator can help improve mentalrnmodels and decision-making. We present evidence from classroom and onlinernexperiments, demonstrating that the simulation is both effective in developingrnusers’ understanding of AFV diffusion dynamics, and enjoyable to use.