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An online change detection test for parametric discrete-time stochastic processes

机译:参数离散随机过程的在线变化检测测试

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摘要

Detecting a change as fast as possible in an observed stochastic process is an important task. In this article, an online procedure is presented to detect changes in the parameter of general discrete-time parametric stochastic processes. As examples, regression models, autoregressive processes, and Galton-Watson processes are investigated. The test is called cumulative sum (CUSUM) type because it is based on the cumulated sums of the estimates of certain martingale difference sequences belonging to the process. In case of a single change alternative hypothesis, the procedure is examined in terms of consistency. Due to the online manner, the time of change can also be estimated.
机译:在观察到的随机过程中尽快检测变化是一项重要任务。在本文中,提出了一种在线过程来检测一般离散时间参数随机过程的参数变化。作为示例,研究了回归模型,自回归过程和Galton-Watson过程。该测试称为累积总和(CUSUM)类型,因为它基于属于该过程的某些mar差异序列的估计值的总和。如果是单个变更备择假设,则将根据一致性检查程序。由于在线方式,更改时间也可以估算。

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