Practice of Detailed Seismic Zoning of the Northwest Caucasus Taking into Account the Results of Paleoseismological Studies

摘要

A new generalization of Northwest Caucasus seismic hazard data is presented taking into account the influence of paleoseismological studies on the seismic hazard level. An attempt has been made to use data on paleoearthquakes for direct seismic hazard assessment by comparing, in accordance with the recurrence law, the magnitude of a strong earthquake with the estimated number of weak seismic events. A fundamentally new seismotectonic base (map of possible earthquakes source (PES) zones) has been prepared for compiling detailed seismic hazard maps of the region. Based on the map of PES zones, seismic impacts are calculated on a probabilistic basis. On the compiled maps, the northwestern and central segments of the Greater Caucasus look like a seismic hazardous area, where the level of seismic effects reaches 8.5 points on maps A and B. At the same time, compared to data from GSZ-97 maps, the results look more differentiated and overall appreciable decrease the level of seismic hazard in the region. The work is important from a methodological aspect in light of seismic risk management of this densely populated and actively developed Russian territory.