Because elderly people are most likely to be hospitalized or die from influenza, U.S. policy puts them at the front of the line for flu shots. But a provocative new analysis of influenza-related mortality in the United States over the past 3 decades suggests that the vaccine has had far less success than presumed at preventing death in those over 65. The study, led by epidemiologist Lone Simonsen of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, Maryland, focuses on the riddling fact that U.S. influenza mortality rates in the over-65 population have increased despite a concurrent jump in vaccination rates in that group, from 15% to 20% in 1980 to 65% in 2001. "There's a huge disconnect here," says Simonsen, whose group published its findings in the 14 February Archives of Internal Medicine.
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