Emergence of drug-resistant influenza virus: Population dynamical considerations

摘要

Given the considerable challenges to the rapid development of an effective vaccine against influenza, antiviral agents wilt play an important role as a first-tine defense if a new pandemic occurs. The large-scale use of drugs for chemoprophylaxis and treatment wilt impose strong selection for the evolution of drug-resistant strains. The ensuing transmission of those strains could substantially limit the effectiveness of the drugs as a first-tine defense. Summarizing recent data on the rate at which the treatment of influenza infection generates resistance de novo and on the transmission fitness of resistant virus, we discuss possible implications for the epidemiological spread of drug resistance in the context of an established population dynamic model.