Bleak Prospects for Avoiding Dangerous Global Warming

摘要

Reining in greenhouse gas emissions in time to avert serious changes to Earth's climate will be at best extremely difficult, according to a study published online 23 October in Nature Climate Change. Current goals for reducing emissions fall far short of what's needed, the study suggests. The study merges model estimates of greenhouse gas emissions through 2100 with calculations of climate response. Climate scientist Joeri Rogelj of ETH Zurich and colleagues found 193 model simulations in the published literature that keep global warming below 2℃at the lowest cost. The researchers then fed the full range of emissions from the scenarios into a simple climate model to estimate the odds of avoiding a dangerous warming.