Monthly district level risk of dengue occurrences in Sakon Nakhon Province, Thailand

摘要

The paper deals with the incidence of the Dengue Virus Infection (DV1) in the 18 districts of Sakon Nakhon Province, Thailand, from January 2005 to December 2007. Using a statistical and autoregressive analysis to smooth incidence data, we have constructed yearly and monthly district level maps of the DV1 distribution. It is found that the DVI incidence is very correlated with weather conditions and higher occurrences are observed in the three most populated districts Wanon Niwat, Sawang Daen Din and Mueang Sakon Nakhon, and the virus transmission period spans from mid-summer to mid-rainy seasons (from April to August). Employing a Generalized Linear Model (GLM), we found that the DVI incidences were related with current meteorological (monthly minimum temperature, past 2-month cumulated rainfall) and socio-economical (population of 0-4 years old, per capita number of public small water wells, and proportion of villages with primary schools) covariates. And using the GLM under the climate change conditions (A1B scenario of IPCC), we found that the higher risk of DVI spreads from the three most populated districts to less populated ones, and the period of virus transmission increases from 5 to 9 months to include part of winter, summer and rainy seasons (from March to November) during which 6%, 61% and 33% of districts will be at low, medium and high risk of DVI occurrences, respectively.