Traffic growth in Australia

摘要

A report from the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) examined the trends in the growth of road traffic in eight Australian states/territories and their eight capital cities. It found that growth in traffic (all vehicle types) per capita has consistently slowed across Australia, with many of the states at or approaching a plateau. The study yielded models of vehicle-kilometres of travel (vkt) per capita as a function of petrol prices, fluctuations in the economy and a saturating effect of time. The patterns of these models were found to be similar across Australia. The linear trend in total vkt over the past four decades is explained by an exponentially declining rate of growth in traffic per person offsetting exponential growth in population. BITRE says that the models can be used to provide base-case forecasts of future trends in traffic growth in Australian states and capital cities for use in forecasting traffic growth, road crashes and the need for infrastructure investment.