The Effects of Key Influencing Factors on Unsafe Events in Airport Flight Areas According to Time Series Data

摘要

This study applied modern econometric models to analyze the factors affecting the number of unsafe events (NUE) in the airport flight area using time series data from 1993 to 2017. Influencing factors considered in this article include gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (GDPPC), household consumption level (HCL), the civil aviation passenger turnover (CAPT), the number of civil aviation transport aircraft (NCATA), the total population of the whole country, and the number of civil aviation employment (NCAE). First, the Johansen cointegration test results demonstrate that HCL, NCATA, and NCAE have long-term effects on unsafe events-namely, a 1% increase in HCL corresponds to an average 0.262% increase in NUE. In addition, a 1% increase in NCATA correlates to an average 2.339% increase, and a 1% increase in NCAE corresponds to an average 2.202% decrease in NUE with fixed variables. The analysis results based on the vector error correction model suggest that CAPT has short-term effects on unsafe events and positively correlates to unsafe events. The results of the impulse response function also indicate that the impact of NUE in the previous period on the change of NUE gradually weakens and finally tends to be stable. Finally, NCATA is found to promote the change of NUE significantly. Similarly, the results of variance decomposition also indicate that NCATA has the greatest contribution to the change of NUE, followed by NUE in the previous period. The findings reveal the effects of key factors on the change of unsafe events in airport flight areas, thus providing a valuable theoretical basis for preventing the occurrence of unsafe incidents.