Straightening Out the Grounds for Precaution: A Commentary and Some Suggestions About Terje Aven's 'On Different Types of Uncertainties'

摘要

The main functions of risk assessment are: (1) supporting risk-taking decisions, (2) motivating safety control, and (3) facilitating multiparty deliberations about (1) and (2). Naturally, uncertainty may permeate more or less of your safety problem and thus evoke precautionary reasoning. Professor Aven's reflections on different kinds of uncertainty demonstrate the need for crystal-clear conceptual nd methodological thinking. Here, decision theory-including Bayesian statistics-is indispensable. Protection motivation theory (see below) may also be helpful. My advance conclusion is, concisely: risk > uncertainty ≠ probability = degree of belief > relative frequency ∈ your prediction model ∈ human coping potential ∈ a balance of false positives (FP) and false negatives (FN) .