Long Term Demand Forecasting of Airline Passengers

摘要

The forecast of passenger demand for flying is a key input for airport and airline operations. Strategic derisions about infrastructure and investment, are taken from this data. Several standard problems of the air industry, such as fleet assignment, schedule planning, cabin layout optimization or airport planning for passenger and aircraft movements can be solved based on predictions of passenger flow evolution. In this paper we propose a new solution approach to compute monthly demand forecast by origin and destination, airline and passenger cabin over several months. By demand, we mean the volume of people willing to travel by air from a city to another, although traffic stands for the aggregation of actual bookings. We present in there the overall flow which allows the combination of the different data sources to achieve forecast of air demand and then a few results from experiments.