The vulnerability of wind power to climate change in Brazil

摘要

The availability and reliability of wind power depend a great deal on current and future climate conditions, which may vary in light of possible global climate change (GCC). Long-term energy planning, however, does not normally take possible future GCC into consideration, which may turn out to be a risky exercise. In the case of Brazil, the untapped wind power potential is known to be impressive, provided that climate conditions remain the same over time. The focus of this study is to analyze some possible impacts of GCC on the wind power potential of Brazil, by simulating wind conditions associated with the IPCC A2 and B2 Scenarios. Results based on the HadCM3 general circulation model and the analysis of the country's wind database indicate that the wind power potential in Brazil would not be jeopardized in the future due to possible new climate conditions. On the contrary, improved wind conditions are expected, particularly in the Northeast coast of the country. Therefore, investments in wind power generation can be an interesting way to expand renewable energy production in Brazil. However, given the large uncertainties associated with GCC models and scenarios, the findings of this paper should be viewed as a possibility rather than as a projection.