Making life safer with a risk analysis approach

摘要

I and others have discussed a sequence (almost an event tree) for a terrorist action to succeed: (1) A person becomes a terrorist; (2) A terrorist gains control of appropriate weapons; (3) A terrorist gains access to a vulnerable part of society; (4) The protection of the vulnerable part of society fails. As usual in discussing safety or risk, the first step is the most important, but it is clear that there is considerable political disagreement on how to proceed. The second step (added to my earlier reports in response to criticism) as applied to small arms is impossible to control, and even to control conventional light weapons is difficult. It is, however, vital for the preservation of the race to keep biological and nuclear weapons out of terrorist hands.