Higher-order sensitivity analysis of a final repository model with discontinuous behaviour using the RS-HDMR meta-modeling approach

摘要

Sensitivity analysis is considered a useful tool for determining sensitivities and assessing uncertainties of computational models, which is critical for the performance assessment of final repository models. One group of methods of sensitivity analysis is variance-based methods, which can identify sensitivities of individual parameters and parameter interactions. This is done via computation of Sobol' sensitivity indices of first and higher orders.Models describing complex physical systems can behave in a highly nonlinear, non-monotonic or even discontinuous manner. Many methods of sensitivity analysis perform poorly or even fail completely on such models. In former investigations with a model of this kind, we could not identify any method capable of calculating reliably second- or higher-order sensitivity indices.This paper demonstrates that the Random-Sampling High Dimensional Model Representation (RS-HDMR) meta-modelling approach is able to compute efficiently sensitivity indices of the first, second and total orders for a complex, highly nonlinear model describing the long-term behaviour of a final repository for low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste, and that the results are consistent and plausible. The efficiency of the RS-HDMR approach in computing sensitivity indices of the first order is compared to that of two other methods: EASI and the State-Dependent-Parameter (SDP) meta-modelling approach.