Sensitivity analysis in conjunction with evidence theory representations of epistemic uncertainty

摘要

Three applications of sampling-based sensitivity analysis in conjunction with evidence theory representations for epistemic uncertainty in model inputs are described: (ⅰ) an initial exploratory analysis to assess model behavior and provide insights for additional analysis; (ⅱ) a stepwise analysis showing the incremental effects of uncertain variables on complementary cumulative belief functions and complementary cumulative plausibility functions; and (ⅲ) a summary analysis showing a spectrum of variance-based sensitivity analysis results that derive from probability spaces that are consistent with the evidence space under consideration.