延焼予測と消防力運用のシミュレーションを利用した地震時の都市火災リスク評価に関する研究

摘要

神奈川県の被害想定による条件をもとに，A市における地震時の同時多発火災を前提とした都市火災リスク評価を行った.分析の結果を以下に要約する.1)被害想定とほぼ同じ出火件数40件の場合,放任時の焼失棟数に比して常備消防のみによる焼失棟数低減率は18.3%であるのに対して，これに消防団を加えた場合は50.4%となり，約30%増加している.このことから，A市の地震時同時多発火災の被害軽減には消防団の寄与度が大きいことが示された.%The authors have developed a simulation system, which has the functions of simulating urban fire spread and fire brigades operation to the fires. This system is basically aimed for the command control by a headquarters of fire stations to quickly produce information on the performance of fire-fighting operation of fire engines against multiple simultaneous post-earthquake fires. In this paper, we conducted risk assessment of post-earthquake fires by using this system for a densely built-up area in some medium-sized city in Kanagawa prefecture. We did case studies of fire risk assessment by changing the conditions of fire-fighting operation such as the number of fire engines, cisterns, and the number of fire ignitions relative to the case with no fire-fighting operation. The result from the case studies shows that there is a very high fire-risk area found in the southeastern part of the city, where the urban planning for improving fire safety is inevitably required in addition to the upgrade of fire-fighting resources such as the number of fire engines and cisterns.