A LOADING-DEPENDENT MODEL OF PROBABILISTIC CASCADING FAILURE

摘要

We propose an analytically tractable model of loading-dependent cascading failure that captures some of the salient features of large blackouts of electric power trans-mission systems. This leads to a new application and derivation of thequasibino-mial distribution and its generalization to a saturating form with an extended parameter range. The saturating quasibinomial distribution of the number of failed components has a power-law region at a critical loading and a significant probability of total failure at higher loadings.