How Many Occurrences of Rare Blackout Events Are Needed to Estimate Event Probability?

Dobson; I.; Carreras; B.A.; Newman; D.E.

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How Many Occurrences of Rare Blackout Events Are Needed to Estimate Event Probability?

机译：需要多少次罕见停电事件才能估计事件概率？

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摘要

We give simple conditions on the number of occurrences needed for statistically valid conclusions about simulated or observed rare events associated with blackouts. For example, 11 occurrences are needed to estimate the probability of a rare event within a factor of 2 with 95% confidence.

机译：我们给出了有关模拟或观察到的与停电有关的罕见事件的统计有效结论所需的次数的简单条件。例如，需要11次出现以95％的置信度估计2因子内的罕见事件的概率。

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来源
《IEEE Transactions on Power Systems》 |2013年第3期|3509-3510|共2页
作者
Dobson; I.; Carreras; B.A.; Newman; D.E.;
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作者单位

ECpE dept., Iowa State University, Ames,|c|;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
Power system reliability; simulation; statistics;

机译：电力系统可靠性;仿真;统计;

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How Many Occurrences of Rare Blackout Events Are Needed to Estimate Event Probability?

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