A study of recent recessions shows energy demand jumping as the economy improves. Data from the last three recessions show energy demand growing 8.5% on average over the five years following a recession's end. Assuming the trend holds this time, some 350 TWh of new capacity would be needed. New nuclear is unlikely to be a factor in the next five years, said Bryan Hawthorne, manager of Project Development, Business & Technology Services for Bums & McDonnell. That means coal should remain in the mix fix new baseload capacity.
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