The ecology of energy use: using the POET model to analyze consumption and intensity across nations 1970-2000

摘要

Many structural factors influence energy regimes at the national and international level, including development/affluence, population size, and oil prices. In this study, we use Duncan's ecological complex (aka "POET'' model) to theorize about the many structural factors that shape national energy usage. Employing one of the largest samples ever used for this purpose (from 1970 to 2000/N = 98/2,263 case-years), coupled with fixed effects to hold constant both unique temporal events and country attributes (e.g., oil embargoes, land area, climate), our pooled time-series analysis suggests that population, social organization, the external social environment (i.e., globalization), and specific technologies are all important dimensions in how the nations of the world use their energy resources. More specifically, while we found that population size, automotive dependence, and global trade increase both total use and energy intensity, other factors such as development, large-scale urbanization, and global oil prices usually lead to (relative) energy savings. We conclude with implications for public policy and further academic study.