DID DINOSAURS GET THE FLU?

摘要

It's very hard to figure out when the influenza virus first started making animals sick. Studies of the history of major human epidemics suggest the flu has been around for at least a thousand years. "The certainty diminishes as we go further back into the past," says David Morens, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. "We can say for certain that influenza has been around since 1918 because we have the 1918 virus. Before that time, we have to speculate or make an educated guess." By looking for clues in contemporary accounts of disease outbreaks, Morens has concluded, with 95 percent certainty, that humans were getting the flu as far back as 1510 A.D. His confidence drops to about 80 percent for epidemics dating to the 800s. "Maybe the 590 A.D. epidemic was influenza," he says, "but when we go back further than that, it's just 'Who knows?'"