Advanced geomagnetic storm forecasting: a risk management tool for electric power system operations

摘要

Geomagnetic disturbances (i.e., space storms) can impact the operational reliability of transmission systems. Solar Cycle 22 (the most recent solar cycle extending from 1986 to 1996) demonstrated to the power industry the need to take into consideration the potential impacts of geomagnetic storms. Experience gained from the unprecedented scale of these recent storm events provides compelling evidence of a general increase in electric power system susceptibility. Important infrastructure advances have recently been put in place that provide solar wind data. This new data source along with numeric model advances allows the capability for predictive forecasts of severe storm conditions, which can be used by impacted power system operators to better prepare for and manage storm impacts.