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Modeling Climate Policies: A Critical Look at Integrated Assessment Models

机译:气候政策建模:综合评估模型的批判性观察

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Climate change presents us with a problem of intergenerational justice. While any costs associated with climate change mitigation measures will have to be borne by the world's present generation, the main beneficiaries of mitigation measures will be future generations. This raises the question to what extent present generations have a responsibility to shoulder these costs. One influential approach for addressing this question is to appeal to neo-classical economic cost-benefit analyses and so-called economy-climate "integrated assessment models" to determine what course of action a principle of intergenerational welfare maximization would require of us. I critically examine a range of problems for this approach. First, integrated assessment models face a problem of underdetermination and induction: They are very sensitive to a number of highly conjectural assumptions about economic responses to a temperature and climate regime, for which we have no empirical evidence. Second, they involve several simplifying assumptions which cannot be justified empirically. And third, some of the assumptions underlying the construction of economic models are intrinsically normative assumptions that reflect value judgments of the modeler. I conclude that, while integrated assessment models may play a useful role as "toy models," their use as tools for policy optimization is highly problematic.
机译:气候变化给我们带来了代际正义问题。尽管与减缓气候变化措施相关的任何成本将必须由当今这一代承担,但减缓措施的主要受益者将是后代。这就提出了一个问题,即当代人在何种程度上有责任承担这些费用。解决这个问题的一种有影响力的方法是诉诸于新古典主义的经济成本收益分析和所谓的经济气候“综合评估模型”,以确定代际福利最大化原则对我们的要求。我认真地研究了这种方法的一系列问题。首先,综合评估模型面临着不确定性和归纳性的问题:它们对关于温度和气候状况的经济反应的许多高度推测性假设非常敏感,而我们没有经验证据。其次,它们涉及一些无法凭经验证明的简化假设。第三,经济模型构建的一些假设是本质上的规范性假设,反映了建模者的价值判断。我得出的结论是,尽管综合评估模型可以作为“玩具模型”发挥有用的作用,但是将它们用作优化策略的工具却存在很大问题。

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