3.5G implementation to delay full-fledged 4G rollout

摘要

The latest data forecasts for 3.5G reveal a slowdown in market growth until 2008, compared to predictions from earlier this year. According to estimates from UK-based ARC Group, there will be roughly 3.75 million 3.5G subscribers globally by 2007, rising to 9.12 million the following year (see fig. 1). ARC's forecasts are remarkably downbeat compared to figures released by U.S.-based research firm Visant Strategies in March. At the time, Visant predicted that the number of subscribers to 3.5G technologies, such as HSDPA/HSUPA, OFDM and UMTS TDD ― labeled 4G by Visant ― would top 52 million by 2007 (see fig. 2). Such predictions were based on data collected during a period when the Japanese market was overlooking NTT DoCoMo's 3G FOMA service and the protracted "will they, won't they" launch saga of 3 in the UK and Italy was going on. A surge in demand for FOMA in the second half of the year has prompted DoCoMo to set its sights on surpassing the 2 million- 3 G-subscriber mark by year-end. And the company, considered to be spearheading development in next-generation technology, has already announced plans to implement HSDPA in 2005. While operators are beginning to express an interest in HSDPA, Visant's forecast for 2007, based on take-up so far, will be well wide of the mark, making ARC's data a more accurate yardstick.