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Fiscal adjustment to cyclical developments in the OECD: an empirical analysis based on real-time data

机译:OECD周期性发展的财政调整:基于实时数据的经验分析

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摘要

Using real-time data, we explore the determinants of both fiscal plans and their implementation for OECD countries over the period 1995–2006. First, based on forecasts we estimate standard fiscal rules. Then, we explore how fiscal policy responds to new information, especially on the business cycle. There are marked differences in behaviour between the planning and implementation stages, as well as between the fiscal policy of EU countries and other OECD countries. Planned fiscal policy is a-cyclical for EU countries and counter-cyclical for the other countries. However, in the implementation stage, the EU countries react pro-cyclically to unexpected changes in the output gap, while the responses of the other OECD countries are a-cyclical. Hence, the empirical distinction between the two fiscal stages is crucial, while the relatively strong emphasis on ex ante, as opposed to ex post, compliance with fiscal rules (such as Europe’s Stability and Convergence Programs) seems misguided.
机译:利用实时数据,我们探索了OECD国家在1995-2006年期间制定的财政计划及其执行的决定因素。首先,根据预测,我们估算标准的财务规则。然后,我们探索财政政策如何响应新信息,尤其是在经济周期方面。在计划和实施阶段之间,以及在欧盟国家和其他经合组织国家的财政政策之间,行为上存在明显差异。计划中的财政政策在欧盟国家中是非周期性的,在其他国家中则是反周期性的。但是,在实施阶段,欧盟国家对产出缺口的意外变化采取周期性应对措施,而其他经合组织国家的应对措施则是非周期性的。因此,这两个财政阶段之间的经验区别至关重要,而相对事后相对于事后强调财政政策(例如欧洲的稳定和趋同计划)的遵守似乎是错误的。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Oxford Economic Papers》 |2010年第3期|p.419-441|共23页
  • 作者

    Massimo Giuliodori;

  • 作者单位
  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-18 01:06:38

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