The Quality of Management Forecasts of Capital Expenditures and Store Openings in MD&A


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We study the quality of retailers' forecasts of planned capital expenditure and store openings provided in Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A). These are important examples of forward-looking information included in MD&A. To examine the quality of these forecasts, we evaluate whether they possess five desirable attributes of management forecasts, namely, unbiasedness, efficiency, high explanatory power, incremental informative-ness, and sufficient-statistic efficiency (meaning that the forecasts incorporate all available information). We find no evidence of bias in the forecasts. We find that the forecasts have high explanatory power and substantial incremental informativeness relative to historical information. In our in-sample tests, we find evidence of inefficiency and sufficient-statistic inefficiency, but our out-of-sample tests find no significant evidence of either, which suggests that it is difficult to improve on these management forecasts. Overall, the evidence indicates that the forecasts are of high quality. These findings contribute to our understanding of the general quality of MD&A information and our results help explain findings that MD&A disclosures are associated with future accounting results and reduced cost of capital.
机译:我们在管理层的讨论与分析(MD&A)中研究零售商对计划的资本支出和店铺开业的预测质量。这些是MD&A中包含的前瞻性信息的重要示例。为了检查这些预测的质量,我们评估它们是否具有管理预测的五个理想属性,即无偏见,效率,高解释力,增量信息量和​​足够的统计效率(意味着这些预测包含所有可用信息) 。我们在预测中没有发现偏差的迹象。我们发现,相对于历史信息,预测具有较高的解释力和可观的增量信息。在我们的样本中测试中,我们发现了效率低下和充分统计上的效率低下的证据,但是我们的样本外测试中却没有发现任何有效的证据,这表明很难对这些管理预测进行改进。总体而言,有证据表明预测是高质量的。这些发现有助于我们理解MD&A信息的总体质量,我们的结果有助于解释MD&A披露与未来会计结果和降低的资本成本相关的发现。



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