A novel emergency decision-making model for collision accidents in the Yangtze River

摘要

Collision accident accounts for the largest proportion among all types of maritime accidents, emergency decision-making is essential to reduce the consequence of such accidents. This paper proposes a novel Bayesian Network based emergency decision-making model for consequence reduction of individual ship-ship collision in the Yangtze River. The kernel of this method is to propose a three-layer decision-making framework, to develop the graphical structure for describing the accident process and to establish the conditional probability tables for the quantitative relationships. The merits of the proposed method include the intuitive representation of accident development, easy to implement, ability to deal with incomplete information and updated information. This proposed method is applied to a typical collision accident in the Yangtze River. Consequently, this paper provides a practical and novel decision-making method for collision accidents.