Potential risk ship domain as a danger criterion for real-time ship collision risk evaluation

摘要

One of the most useful method to indicate the risk of ship collision is the ship domain. After decades of development, different ship domain models have been constructed from various aspects. Nevertheless, a shortcoming of the early research of ship domains is not able to describe the level of danger of any point in the area around the ship. Therefore, a Potential Risk Ship Domain (PRSD) model with clear meaning of risk degree is first proposed in this paper. The zone around a ship has been established which is based on concept of ship domain and consists of continuously risk levels, by using kernel-density algorithm. The influence of ship length and speed as well as navigation situation on the size and shape of ship domain by PRSD model are analyzed. Size of ship domain and potential collision risk indexes for each risk level will be identified by comparison with previous models. Simulations show that the PRSD model can effectively evaluate the danger of navigation and discovery potentially dangerous areas for navigation by indicating the dynamic and continuous index of potential risk degree in real time.