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Study of sampling methods for assessment of extreme significant wave heights in the South China Sea

机译:南海极显着波高评估的抽样方法研究

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摘要

Adequate knowledge of extreme wave events is crucial for the coastal and offshore engineering community. In this study, assessment of extreme significant wave heights is performed in the South China Sea (SCS). Significant wave heights from a 40-year (1975-2014) hindcast of tropical cyclone waves are adopted as the initial database. The annual maxima (AM) method with the Gumbel model, a conventional method, is used to assess extreme significant wave heights, which fits the annual maximal significant wave height for extrapolation. The peak over threshold (POT) method with the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) model is applied to determine return significant wave heights with certain return periods by fitting the peak excesses over a sufficiently large value (the threshold). To select the suitable threshold for the POT method, the sensitivity of the return significant wave height to the threshold is analysed. Based on the sampling theory and the characteristic of hindcasted significant wave heights of tropical cyclone waves, applicability of two sampling methods in the SCS is investigated.
机译:充分了解极端海浪事件对于沿海和海上工程界至关重要。在这项研究中,对南中国海(SCS)的极高波高进行了评估。最初的数据库采用了热带气旋波后40年(1975-2014年)的显着波高。使用传统方法Gumbel模型的年极大值(AM)方法来评估极高有效波高,该高度与外推的年极大最大波高相吻合。通过将峰值超出部分拟合到足够大的值(阈值)上,使用带有广义帕累托分布(GPD)模型的峰值超过阈值(POT)方法来确定具有某些返回周期的返回有效波高。为了为POT方法选择合适的阈值,分析了返回有效波高对阈值的敏感性。基于采样理论和热带气旋波后向显着波高特征,研究了两种采样方法在南海的适用性。

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