Efficient Use of Monte Carlo: Uncertainty Propagation

摘要

A new and faster Total Monte Carlo (TMC) method for the propagation of nuclear data uncertainties in Monte Carlo nuclear simulations is presented (the fast TMC method). It addresses the main drawback of the original TMC method, namely, the necessary large time multiplication factor compared to a single calculation. With this new method, Monte Carlo simulations can now be accompanied with an uncertainty propagation (other than statistical), with small additional calculation time. The fast TMC method is presented and compared with the TMC and fast GRS methods for criticality and shielding benchmarks and burnup calculations. Finally, to demonstrate the efficiency of the method, uncertainties due to uncertainties in ~(235,238)U, ~(239)Pu, and thermal scattering nuclear data, for the local deposited power in 12.7 million cells, are calculated for a full-size reactor core.