An approach to the construction of a one top fire event PSA model

摘要

An internal fire event probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model has been generally quantified by modifications of a pre-developed internal events PSA model. New accident sequence logics not covered in the internal events PSA model are separately developed to incorporate them into the fire PSA model. Previous studies on the changes of the one top internal event PSA model for the one top fire event PSA model have been limited to the equipment failures affected by the fire. In addition, they assumed that the probabilities of basic events associated with equipment or cables impacted by the fire are one. However, the probabilities of spurious operation events and human failure events affected by the fire might not be estimated as one. In this study, new modification rules were proposed for the construction of a one top PSA model for fire events by using a one top internal event PSA model. The proposed new modification rules can be applied to all the fire damage events for the fire-induced equipment failure events and spurious operation events, human error events impacted by a fire, regardless of whether they are estimated as one or not. Applications of the proposed modification rules to the compartment and scenario-level fires for the hypothetical plants were performed for demonstrating their appropriateness to the changes of the one top internal event PSA model to the one top fire event PSA model. In addition, quantification procedure with the one top fire event PSA model was presented and discussed.