Stochastic and deterministic models to evaluate the critical distance of a near surface repository for the disposal of intermediate and low level radioactive wastes

摘要

The aim of this paper is to present the stochastic and deterministic models developed for the evaluation of the critical distance of a near surface repository for the disposal of intermediate (ILW) and low level (LLW) radioactive wastes. The critical distance of a repository is defined as the distance between the repository and a well in which the water activity concentration is able to cause a radiological dose to a member of the public equal to the dose limit set by the regulatory body. The mathematical models are developed based on the Richards equation for the liquid flow in the porous media and on the solute transport equation in this medium. The release of radioactive material from the repository to the environment is considered through its base and its flow is determined by Darcy's Law. The deterministic model is obtained from the stochastic approach by neglecting the influence of the Gaussian white noise on the rainfall and the equations are solved analytically with the help of conventional calculus (non-stochastic calculus). The equations of the stochastic model are solved analytically based on the Ito stochastic calculus and numerically by using the Euler-Maruyama method. The impact on the value of the critical distance of the Abadia de Goias repository is analyzed, taken as a study case, when the deterministic methodology is replaced by the stochastic one, considered more appropriate for modeling rainfall as a stochastic process. (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.